by R.W. Napper, A gentleman from Tennessee
R.W. Napper is a retired educator and businessperson. He holds a master’s degree in history and is the author of two books: Trustworthy and True, The Unfolding of Biblical Prophecy Upon the Pages of History (2016, non-fiction), and Kalb Hollow, A Nashville Story (2023, fiction).
The war in Ukraine has been raging since March of 2022 when Russian troops invaded. Why? Why did Putin begin massing troops on the border of Ukraine in 2015 and order an invasion in 2022? The common narrative is that Putin desires to reconstitute the old Russian Empire and return Russia to its former glory. There is plenty of evidence to support this thesis; however, there are other important factors that are left out of this narrative. These are factors seldom, if ever, mentioned by the Biden administration or by the news media. In order to achieve peace and avoid a larger war, these factors must be addressed.
There are two major sticking points between Russia and Ukraine. The first is the control of Crimea. The other is the prospect of Ukraine’s entry into the NATO alliance. These factors are related, but the Crimean problem is paramount.
During the Russo-Turkish War (1768-1774), Russia annexed a peninsula that juts into the Black Sea known as the Crimea. In 1783, Russia completed the construction of a naval base at the Crimean port city of Sevastopol. This port represented Russia’s only warm water naval base. The purpose of the base was to protect Russian interests along the Black Sea and to protect the flow of commerce between Russia and the Mediterranean Sea. Since the days of Catherine the Great, the naval base at Sevastopol has secured the lane of commerce through the Black Sea, the Bosporus strait, and the Dardanelles strait–into the Mediterranean Sea. For Russia, the base at Sevastopol insures a major economic lifeline.
Following the Bolshevik revolution in 1917, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics was created under the rule of Lenin’s communist party. Although the Soviet Union included fifteen socialist republics, governmental power was concentrated in Moscow, the Soviet capital. Russia was one of those fifteen republics, and Ukraine was another. The Russian Soviet Socialist Republic, as Russia was called, retained administrative control of the Crimea. The Russian naval base at Sevastopol became a base of the Soviet navy. The purpose of the base remained the same: protect the Soviet Union’s interests in the Black Sea and its outlet to the Mediterranean.
Something very significant happened in 1954. For whatever reason, Soviet Premier Nikita Khruschev transferred control of Crimea from the Russian Soviet Social Republic to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. This did not affect the Soviet Black Sea Fleet. It remained based at Sevastopol; however, administrative control of Crimea passed from Russia to Ukraine. Since the overwhelming majority of Crimean residents were Russian, this move was not popular in Crimea. That displeasure did not matter. Under a Soviet dictatorship, the transfer had to be accepted.
Another significant event occurred in 1991. The Soviet Union dissolved into fifteen separate and independent republics including Russia and Ukraine. The Soviet Black Sea Fleet fell into joint control by Russia and Ukraine for a very short time before the naval assets were divided between the two republics. Separate Russian and Ukrainian navies came into being. This proved to be a problem for Russia. The naval base at Sevastopol and all of Crimea was under Ukrainian control. Where was the Russian navy to drop anchor? It no longer had a right to use the harbor at Sevastopol. In 1997, a treaty between the two nations allowed Russian ships to remain at Crimea and share the base with the Ukrainian navy until 2017 with Russia paying annual lease payments.
It is important to point out an internal problem of Ukraine. Ukraine is a politically and ethnically divided country. Most of the territory east of the Dnieper River is pro-Russian. These people are of Russian background and wish Ukraine to draw closer to Russia. Many people in this area would welcome Russian annexation. The area west of the Dnieper River are anti-Russian and wish Ukraine to move away from Russia and draw closer to the West. During the democratization policy of the George W. Bush administration which accompanied the war in Iraq, the United States backed the pro-Western faction. Some believe that the United States took part in a questionable Ukrainian election in 2004. Undoubtedly, Russia saw this as the U.S. audaciously meddling in Russia’s backyard.
Another milestone on the journey to the present war occurred in 2013 and 2014. In 2013, Ukraine negotiated a free trade agreement with the European Union and ignored Russia’s desire for a Ukrainian trade agreement. Russia saw the EU agreement as Ukraine moving toward the West and possible NATO membership. Russia immediately made Ukraine an offer that was too good for President Viktor Yanukovich to refuse. The trade agreement included $15 billion in various incentives and aid to Ukraine. The agreement also allowed Russia the permanent right to the naval base at Sevastopol. Yanukovich signed the deal. With that signing, anti-Russian protests broke out in Kiev and several other cities. Russia believed that the protests were backed by the United States. According to an Obama State Department official, the U.S. had spent $5 billion to influence Ukrainian politics. The protests quickly grew in momentum and became violent, forcing Yanukovich to flee the country. A pro-Western government was established. Russia believed that this was done with U.S. backing. The Ukrainian-Russian trade agreement was dead. The Russian fleet’s right to use the port at Sevastopol would expire in 2017.
Believing that the United States had meddled in Russia’s vital interests and fearing the loss of the warmwater naval base in Crimea, Putin decided that he must act. It was at this time in 2014 that Putin ordered the invasion of Crimea. It was actually a peaceful annexation rather than an invasion. Russia took control of Crimea with no shots fired and no loss of life. The Crimean residents welcomed Russian control. One cannot read Vladimir Putin’s mind, but he probably not only feared the loss of the base at Sevastopol, but he also probably believed that should Ukraine join NATO, that base would become a NATO based and would probably be manned by U.S. forces. This, Putin could not allow to happen.
Western leaders deplored Russia’s annexation of Crimea; however, they took no action. Many in the West viewed Russian control of Crimea as a step toward stability in that area. Most realized that Russian control was popular among Crimean residents. Along with other Western powers, the Obama administration seemed to accept the annexation of Crimea.
It was at this point that Russian troops began to mass along the Ukrainian border with Russia. Why? The widely held belief was that Putin was preparing to invade and annex Ukraine. Many believed that Putin saw this as a first step toward rebuilding the Russian Empire and compared this action to that of Adolf Hitler’s actions toward Czechoslovakia in 1938. Maybe so, but perhaps Putin had another reason. Again, one cannot read Putin’s mind; however, he probably realized that his annexation of Crimea had pushed Ukraine more toward the West and NATO membership. Perhaps he believed such a build-up of force would discourage Ukraine from attempting to re-annex Crimea. Should either of those events occur, Putin’s military might on the Ukrainian border could be used to overthrow the pro-Western Ukrainian government and install a pro-Russian regime.
Both the Obama and Trump administrations seemed to accept the Russian annexation of Crimea, but both send aid to help Ukraine defend itself in the event of a Russian invasion. Trump sent the most lethal aid in the form of anti-tank missiles. Through the entire Trump administration, Russian troops remained on the Ukrainian border, but Putin took no action.
In 2021, enter the Biden administration.
In November of 2021, President Biden’s Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, visited Ukraine for high level meetings. On November 10, Blinken agreed that the United States would be fully committed to Ukraine’s entry into NATO. Blinken further stated that the United States would recognize Ukraine’s claim to Crimea. Wow!!! Did the Biden administration fail to see that Russia would see this as highly provocative. Some people, including RFK, Jr., believe that the administration wanted a proxy war to degrade Russia’s military and stimulate the American economy. In the opinion of this writer, the hapless Biden administration bumbled and stumbled into a bloody and expensive proxy war. The following March, Putin pulled the trigger and launched the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Putin believes, in the opinion of this writer, that gaining control of Ukraine would (1) prevent Ukrainian membership in NATO and prevent Russia’s entire western border being populated by NATO nations, and (2) safeguard the control of Crimea and the Black Sea naval base at Sevastopol.
At any rate, the invasion has not gone well for Russia. Although the Russian military has been able to occupy some territory in the pro-Russian area east of the Dnieper River, it has failed to make headway in the west. It has failed to capture Kiev and topple the Ukrainian government. This failure is due to the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian army and massive military aid from the United States and Europe. Responding to Russia’s military failures, Putin stepped up air attacks on Ukrainian cities which has reduced large areas to rubble. Terrible loss of life has occurred. Tens of thousands of Russian troops have been killed. Recently, Putin voiced his willingness to use tactical nuclear weapons. Is this a bluff? Maybe, maybe not.
In the opinion of this writer, a very ominous situation is developing. Should the Ukrainian army armed with Abrams tanks and F-16 fighter jets seriously threaten Crimean, will Putin go nuclear.? This is a scenario which should not be allowed to play out. Peace between Russia and Ukraine must be achieved–and soon. It is imperative that a cease-fire occur immediately, and it should be followed by serious negotiations in which both parties understand that there must be give-and-take on both sides. There is a Nobel Peace Prize awaiting the leader who can convince the warring parties to talk peace. Does such a leader exist??
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